Oil spill trajectory modelling provides information on potential movement of oil slicks. This information supports the decision-making process for identifying general resources at risk and mobilization of response resources. Computerized oil trajectory modelling provides oil movement predictions (2D and 3D) as well as detailed information about oil weathering such as evaporation, emulsification and natural dispersion.

Oil spill surveillance, whether through aircraft or remote sensing (e.g. satellites), collects images of the spill to visually assess the oil thickness, to estimate the oil weathering and to determine the extent and appearance of oil slicks. It also provides a validation of information obtained from oil spill modelling.

Based on the vision of PERSGA to raise the capability and performance of EMARSGA and to improve the Centre’s capabilities in coordination of response efforts in the case of emergency, an Oil Spill Trajectory Model has been installed in the Centre in June 2008.

Additionally, the carriage of many millions of tons of chemicals in bulk on specialized carriers, or on container and cargo ships in this region indicates strongly that an incident that could or would cause damage to the marine environment of RSGA is a distinct probability.

In this context, the model was upgraded in 2024, and new functionalities and settings were added in order to integrate the chemical and atmospheric components, and the improvement work was undertaken under the SFISH project funded by the World Bank.

Chemical and hazardous material discharges have potential environmental and human health consequences.

The chemical modeling “CHEMMAP” installed at EMARSGA center is a decision support tool that will assist in the long run Member States improving their operational needs which could results in achieving effective monitoring and enable the States to maximize their efforts to protect their marine environment for sustainable fisheries and marine resources in the region.

The CHEMMAP model consists of several integrated components.

• The 3D trajectory and fates model track the surface movement of a chemical and determines the chemicals distribution in various environmental compartments: water surface, atmosphere, water column, and shoreline.
• The stochastic model.
• Biological effect model evaluates exposure of organisms and habitats, acute toxicity of aquatic biota, and resulting lost animal-years or production.
• Air dispersion modeling “AIRMAP” that predicts the trajectory and fate of a wide variety of chemical substances and biological agents in the atmosphere.

The linkage of AIRMAP and CHEMMAP allows the user to track the movement and dispersion of volatized chemical from a spill in/on the water and into the atmosphere.

Implementing these modeling tools in EMARSGA center will also enhance collaboration among diverse stakeholders, including scientists, marine specialist, policymakers, industry representatives, and environmental specialists and organizations. These advanced tools provide a common platform for data analysis, scenario planning, and decision-making, facilitating informed and coordinated responses to environmental challenges resulting from marine pollution.

Additionally, EMARSGA would be working as a regional cooperation hub, by utilizing this modeling software to any focal points in PERSGA member country.